Oscar Predictions: Best Picture — Will Venice and Telluride Set the Stage for ‘Joker 2,’ ‘The Room Next Door’ and ‘The Piano Lesson?’
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture
Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 22, 2024): The first two major fall festivals—Venice and Telluride—are set to kick off the awards season next week, offering early looks at major movies vying for the attention of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Among the most anticipated films is Todd Phillips’ musical sequel “Joker: Folie à Deux,” which graced the cover of Variety this week. Phillips spoke with Brent Lang, Variety’s executive editor, about the film, which is set to debut on Sept. 4. The movie, following its 2019 predecessor that earned 11 Oscar nominations and won two, including best actor for Joaquin Phoenix, could be a significant contender for its distributor, Warner Bros. However, the studio will need to juggle other high-profile sequels, including Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two,” Tim Burton’s “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice,” George Miller’s “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” and the animated “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim.”
Venice will also showcase premieres of Halina Reijn’s “Babygirl” starring Nicole Kidman, Justin Kurzel’s “The Order” with Jude Law, and Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door” featuring Julianne Moore and Tilda Swinton.
At Telluride, we can expect the world premieres of Edward Berger’s thriller “Conclave” starring Ralph Fiennes and Malcolm Washington’s adaptation of August Wilson’s play “The Piano Lesson” with Samuel L. Jackson. Another film to watch is RaMell Ross’ drama “Nickel Boys,” which is said to be a powerful adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s novel. Telluride is also expected to feature a substantial selection of music-centered films as part of its lineup, which won’t be announced until Thursday, Aug. 29. These include Michael Gracey’s “Better Man” starring Robbie Williams as himself, Morgan Neville’s animated biopic “Piece by Piece” about Pharrell Williams, and Joshua Oppenheimer’s post-apocalyptic “The End” with Tilda Swinton and Michael Shannon.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.
** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.
-
Image Credit: Pedro Almodóvar And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Film 1 “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello2 “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick3 “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer4 “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joseph Garner5 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Bob Bookman, Nina Byrne, Timothée Chalamet, Alan Gasmer, Alex Heineman, Peter Jaysen, James Mangold, Jeff Rosen6 “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García7 “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan8 “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington9 “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine10 “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis VilleneuveBest Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Sony Pictures Next in Line
Rank Film 11 “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) 12 “Conclave” (Focus Features) 13 “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures) 14 “Sing Sing” (A24) 15 “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon) 16 “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures) 17 “The End” (Neon) 18 “September 5” (No U.S. Distribution) 19 “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) 20 “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Image Credit: Focus Features Other Contenders
Rank Film 21 “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 22 “Inside Out 2” (Pixar) 23 “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features) 24 “We Live in Time” (A24) 25 “His Three Daughters” (Netflix) 26 “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution) 27 “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) 28 “Challengers” (Amazon MGM) 29 “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 30 “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Also In Contention
Rank Film 31 “Here” (Sony Pictures) 32 “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) 33 “Babygirl” (A24) 34 “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 35 “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) ** 36 “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.) 37 “In the Summers” (Music Box Films) 38 “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) 39 “The Substance” (Mubi) 40 “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films) Best Motion Picture (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) -
Eligible Titles (Best Picture)
Image Credit: Dick Pope ** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
- “The Actor” (Neon) **
- “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)
- “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Anora” (Neon)
- “The Apprentice” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Babygirl” (A24)
- “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)
- “Bird” (Mubi)
- “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)
- “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
- “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Brutalist” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- “Civil War” (A24)
- “The Colors Within” (GKids)
- “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Conclave” (Focus Features)
- “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
- “The Deb” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)
- “A Different Man” (A24)
- “Dìdi” (Focus Features)
- “Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
- “Echo Valley” (Apple Original Films) **
- “Eden” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- “Emmanuelle” (Neon) **
- “The End” (Neon)
- “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)
- “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- “Frida” (Amazon MGM)
- “The Friend” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Front Room” (A24)
- “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Harbin” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- “Here” (Sony Pictures)
- “Heretic” (A24)
- “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
- “Hit Man” (Netflix)
- “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)
- “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)
- “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)
- “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- “IF” (Paramount Pictures)
- “The Imaginary” (Netflix)
- “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)
- “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- “Janet Planet” (A24)
- “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
- “K-Pops” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
- “Klara and the Sun” (Sony Pictures) **
- “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “The Last Showgirl” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- “The Life of Chuck” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Longlegs” (Neon)
- “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.)
- “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- “Maria” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Meet the Barbarians” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)
- “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
- “Millers in Marriage” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Misericordia” (Janus Films) **
- “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal)
- “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)
- “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
- “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
- “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- “Nutcrackers” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber) **
- “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24)
- “On Swift Horses” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)
- “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Parthenope” (A24)
- “The Penguin Lessons” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
- “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
- “Polaris” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Queer” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Quisling – The Final Days” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
- “Relay” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)
- “The Return” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Rez Ball” (Netflix)
- “Riff Raff” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “Rumours” (Bleecker Street)
- “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
- “September 5” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Shirley” (Netflix)
- “The Shrouds” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Sing Sing” (A24)
- “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)
- “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Spellbound” (Netflix)
- “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder)
- “The Substance” (Mubi)
- “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
- “That Christmas” (Netflix)
- “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures)
- “Tuesday” (A24)
- “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)
- “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)
- “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)
- “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)
- “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
- “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- “We Live in Time” (A24)
- “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
- “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
- “William Tell” (No U.S. Distribution)
- “Without Blood” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- “Young Werther” (No U.S. Distribution) **
- “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
-
More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)
Image Credit: FilmMagic 2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
— — Best Picture Director Actor in a Leading Role Actress in a Leading Role Actor in a Supporting Role Actress in a Supporting Role Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay Animated Feature Production Design Cinematography Costume Design Film Editing Makeup and Hairstyling Sound Visual Effects Original Score Original Song Documentary Feature International Feature Animated Short Documentary Short Live Action Short Casting (coming in 2026) 2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
