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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories

Screenshot courtesy Sony Pictures Classics

Weekly Commentary (Updated Aug. 22, 2024): The Telluride and Venice Film Festivals are set to kick off next week, officially signaling the start of the fall awards season. While many films remain unseen, early buzz and industry rumors hint at a strong year ahead, featuring a mix of mainstream studio projects, musicals, and sequels that could dominate the conversation.

Leading the charge this week is Jacques Audiard’s musical “Emilia Pérez,” a Netflix production that has already garnered significant attention. The film’s unconventional narrative, coupled with Audiard’s distinctive directorial style, could position it as a serious contender in the race. Notably, this could be the streaming giant’s best shot yet at securing its first best picture Oscar after being the arguable “runner-up” for “Roma” (2018) and “The Power of the Dog” (2021). Despite Audiard’s impressive body of work, he has yet to receive his own Oscar nom, adding more juice to its chances.

Another highly anticipated film is Searchlight’s “A Complete Unknown,” a Bob Dylan biopic directed by James Mangold and still in the editing process. Timothée Chalamet takes on the lead role, with Monica Barbaro potentially delivering a breakout performance as Joan Baez. The film is set for a Christmas release, strategically bypassing the festival circuit. This could make it a late-breaking contender in the vein of past successes like “Million Dollar Baby” (2004). However, it will undoubtedly try to steer focus from an array of high-profile sequels, including Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II,” Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux,” and Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune: Part Two.”

Watch out for potential surprise category placements for several actors as the season unfolds. Among those that could call an “audible” during the season are Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”), Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”), Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”), Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), and any of the ensemble cast members of “Emilia Pérez” and “His Three Daughters.” An added unexpected twist to the awards race would create an exciting and unpredictable season.

And let’s not forget potential acquisitions on the horizon, which could come for Pamela Anderson’s lead vehicle, “The Last Showgirl,” or Tim Fehlbaum’s “September 5, ” which looks at the 1972 Munich Olympics hostage crisis from the sports broadcasting perspective.

With such a diverse slate of films and performances, the upcoming awards season promises to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. Stay tuned as the festival premieres begin, setting the stage for what could be a memorable year in cinema.

Overall updates are below. The charts will continue to be updated throughout the week.

Top 5 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (12); “A Complete Unknown” (11); “Gladiator II” (9); “Dune: Part Two” and “Joker: Folie à Deux” (7); “Blitz” (6)

Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (20); Warner Bros. (16); Searchlight Pictures (12)

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

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