Reality Check: Summer Hot Streak Won’t Dig U.S. Box Office Out of Deep Hole in 2024

Disney and Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” took cinemas to their highest point yet this year, delivering a $211 million domestic opening over the weekend after Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” hit the $600 million mark. 

There’s no question that everyone with a stake in film exhibition is ecstatic over the results of the last two months. Disney’s two powerhouse tentpoles stood in stark contrast to a sluggish run at the box office that kicked off in January and grew especially worrisome in May, as the summer began with a whimper when “The Fall Guy” and “Furiosa” underperformed.

But they were followed by strong outings for the latest in the “Bad Boys,” “Despicable Me,” “A Quiet Place” and “Planet of the Apes” franchises. By the time the standalone sequel to 1996’s “Twister” hit the $150 million mark in its second weekend in July, it felt like the continuation of a miraculous run.

And that’s just the problem. More than a miracle is needed to bring the 2024 domestic box office back up to last year’s level.

In fact, the year’s cumulative box office is down around 19% from 2023 as of the end of July, give or take a few days. That isn’t much better than where things stood by the end of that dark period in May, when cumulative gross was down 23% from last year.

On top of that, the domestic summer season has seen only eight films pass $100 million before August, as opposed to 12 last year.

As incredible as July was to the movie business, it still fell roughly 20% from a year ago, mostly because the combined success of “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” — just as SAG-AFTRA joined the WGA in striking — set an exceptionally high bar for the previous July. Even with the enduring success of “Inside Out 2” from June, plus “Twisters” and then “Deadpool” delivering the year’s best weekend, it wasn’t enough to right 2024’s ship.

Year over year, March was the only month that grew from 2023, mainly because “Dune: Part Two” and “Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire” were delayed to that window as a result of last year’s Hollywood strikes. With many other films delayed to 2025, including additional Marvel Cinematic Universe entries from Disney, there simply haven’t been enough films this year to support big successes like “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine.”

The summer season is as important as it has ever been in the post-pandemic theatrical climate, and the new “Deadpool” was its last major tentpole.

Even if M. Night Shyamalan’s “Trap” thriller kicks off August on a strong note this weekend, it won’t mean much if the fall months don’t deviate significantly from the decade-plus trend of being weaker than summer, which has accounted for nearly half of annual gross the past two years.

Naysayers would point out that a sequel to 2019 powerhouse “Joker” is primed for a good showing this October, as it’s the next R-rated superhero spectacle after “Deadpool.” No disrespect to the reboot of “The Crow” due this month, but Lionsgate moving its release from June to August wasn’t a big vote of confidence.

As for November, not only is there no Marvel offering to get the month started, there is nothing slated by a major studio until the middle of the month when Sony’s “Here” bows, underscoring the calendar blow dealt by last year’s strikes.

It doesn’t matter if “Moana 2,” “The Wild Robot” and “Mufasa” repeat their animated compatriots’ earlier success this year or if “Gladiator 2” and “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” follow “Twisters” as successful sequels to their decades-old predecessors.

2024 is just not cinema’s year. If 2025 doesn’t dramatically turn things around with the influx of strike-delayed tentpoles and exceed 2023’s total, the film business could be in serious trouble.